Tuesday, 16 October 2018

Instructions for the Conference

For anyone who has signed up for the Melbourne Traditionalists Conference this weekend I will send out the address via text and further instructions via email. Both will go out this Thursday afternoon.

For anyone who likes to do things at the last minute, ticket sales will end at midday on Friday. Anything received after that time will not be accepted as that is when I need to confirm catering.

Everything is set to go and I look forward to seeing everyone this weekend!
Mark Moncrieff

Upon Hope Blog - A Traditional Conservative Future
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Thursday, 11 October 2018

The Sixty-Seventh Month

Another great month, although I feel as if I just wrote the last update a few days ago! Obviously not true as there are a few articles that I wrote between then and now.

Nine countries over 100, with one over 1000 but many of the usual suspects aren't there. In the last month I have had 4,178 visitors, my worst day was 24th September with 64 visitors and my best day the 7th October with 310 visitors.

September-October
EntryPageviews
United States
1588
Australia
493
Unknown Region
368
Philippines
211
Poland
191
Ukraine
191
Indonesia
154
Germany
151
Singapore
116
United Kingdom
83

August-September
EntryPageviews
United States
1517
Germany
909
Australia
569
France
499
Indonesia
297
Unknown Region
269
Singapore
193
Ukraine
104
United Kingdom
80
Brazil
46

The United States, the Ukraine are up and the United Kingdom is slightly up.

Australia, Unknown Region, Indonesia, Germany and Singapore are all down.

The Philippines and Poland are now in the top 10.

While France and Brazil have both left the top 10.

I have also had visitors from the following countries: France, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Italy, Hungary, Albania, Romania, Moldova, Estonia, Russia, Turkey, Lebanon, U.A.E., Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, South Africa, Lesotho, New Zealand, Canada, Costa Rico, Ecuador, Chile.

I hope to see you again soon.
Mark Moncrieff

Upon Hope Blog - A Traditional Conservative Future
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Tuesday, 9 October 2018

Do We Have Free Will?

Over on another post I received some comments from a reader who calls himself ImmigrationFacts, I include below the full exchange.


The extent to which people are unknowingly/unreflectively influenced by others is grossly underestimated. We like to pretend that we've come to our conclusions based on evidence and informed opinion, but that's B.S (mostly).

We are influenced by what we are exposed to - period. Yes, we can reject a minority of things we are exposed to based on previous experience and reflection, but we pretend we do this much more than we actually do.

We are a blank slate and we are mostly not in control of the quill. We don't realise this because of our myth of 'free will', which is a lie, but a lie nearly everyone in the West believes in.
ReplyDelete

Replies

  1. ImmigrationFacts

    If you have no free will what force compelled you to comment?

    Mark Moncrieff
    Delete
  2. perhaps, an 'unfree' will? why must it be free - why not partially or full determined?

    I don't like analytical philosophy because it's generally pointless, but in this case, using Ockham's Razor, can't I just say 'something compelled me' or 'there was some psychological need that was fulfilled by me writing'?

    Does a thought come when I will it? Or does a thought come when it does and I may (or may not) reflect on it?

    You don't need 'free will' to explain human behaviour. We are animals afterall. And I'd argue that the concept of free will leads to an erroneous understanding of human behaviour.

    Some cultures don't have the concept of free will as we understand it and they function just fine.

Blank State! Unfree Will! We are animals afterall!

No, non of these things are true.

People are born ignorant, we do not possess knowledge, however we do possess instincts and preferences. One thing I have always found interesting is how babies react to men. Some babies love men and others find them the scariest creatures in existence. No knowledge, maybe instinct but definitely a preference. If babies have a preference how can they be blank states?

They cannot be, it is simply wrong, I would go so far as to say it is absurd!

Now I agree that people are much more influenced than they think, they take more notice of popular opinion, personal opinion and advertising then they think. But there is a very good reason for people to do that, in most cases it helps them to fit in and it normally has no cost. It is a sort of stereotyping, a shorthand that even when wrong is rarely disastrously wrong. However that does not mean that every action is done without conscious thought. If that were true then individuals could not operate as individuals, but people do.

However, if we have no free will then how do we think and how do we carry out actions?

The argument made here is a good one, that we do not have full control of our faculties, which is true, thats why it's good. However it has been taken to it's illogical conclusion.

We are biological creatures, we have instincts that we do not need to think about to carry out, it is hardwired into us, an automatic response. If you have ever fallen over you will have experienced this. If you have ever been tongue tied then you would know that not everything is automatic. Many of the things that we do in life need both thinking and action, it's not enough to know what to say you also have to say it.

Sometimes we think thoughts that we don't like or we act in ways that aren't the "real us". Why don't we do that all the time? If we have no free will how do we have self control? If we have no free will how can there be a real us? If we have an unfree will or a partial will does that mean we are automations? Or that some other force or will controls us?

That there are limits to free will is true, that we are not always in total control is also true, but to think that we have little to no control is not true. Who robbed the bank, me with my free will or me with my unfree will? Thats the argument of children and the guilty.

Are people animals?

We are certainly biological and we are much in common with animals. We share 99% of our DNA with chimpanzees, we also share 56% of out DNA with fruit flys. In other words, DNA, the basic building blocks of life are really basic. However it is not the things that make us similar that define us but the things that make us different. Did you know that if a human child 9 years of age was the oldest human on Earth that that child would be the most intelligent creature on the planet?

We are much more than animals, we are even in a biological sense so much more complex than them that we are unique. Maybe in the universe there are other creatures as intelligent, or even more intelligent than us. Unless they are also human then we would remain unique. Our ability to solve problems, to make and use tools, to think, to build societies, cultures and civilizations, to know that the future is real and not simple another day. To call humans animals is to misunderstand both animals and humans. I would also add something that history has taught, when people begin to think that people are animals then people start being treated as animals. We treat animals as animals because that is their nature, but it is not ours.

I hope ImmigrationFacts does not feel picked on, I wanted to give a more complete answer than a blog comment can make.

Upon Hope Blog - A Traditional Conservative Future
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Saturday, 6 October 2018

Two Weeks until the Melbourne Traditionalists Conference!

Everything is moving quickly now with only a fortnight to go. I have confirmed all of the speakers, I have booked the venue as well as the banquet. Everything is set. So this is my final post inviting anyone interested in the Melbourne Traditionalists Conference, who has not paid already, to do so as soon as possible via the trybooking link below.

Our keynote speaker is Frank Salter, who researches, writes and consults on genetics and ethnicity, if that interests you check out the link and have a look at his books on Amazon.

If anyone attending has any dietary or mobility issues please let me know via email.

Melbourne Traditionalists Conference 2018

Dates: 19 October, Friday 7pm, Meet and Greet
            20 October, Saturday, 10am-5pm Conference
             7pm Banquet

Venue: The venue is a very nice building, old and beautiful in the inner suburbs of Melbourne, Australia. The location will be revealed to those attending the week of the Conference.

Cost: Concession $75
          Full Price $100
          Everything in Australian Dollars, if your unsure if you are Concession of Full Price send me an email.

Register: To register and pay for the Conference go to trybooking

Lecture Topics

1. The History of the Anti-Suffragette Movement

2. Christianity, Morality and the West

3. Shakespeare and Conservatism

4. Anglo-Australia

5. Traditionalism, the way forward

What do you get for your money? 5 lectures, lunch and banquet, all non-alcoholic drinks, all inclusive.

If you have any questions please send me an email at uponhopeblog(at)gmail.com

I look forward to seeing you there!
Mark Moncrieff

Upon Hope Blog - A Traditional Conservative Future
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Thursday, 4 October 2018

Doers and Thinkers

Why doesn't the truth of our message spread quicker? Why do people keep returning to the same ways of thinking, even when logic and experience should move them along? Why are so many people still asleep to the crisis of our Civilization, even when they can feel that something is wrong?

I have been contemplating this for quite some time and then I realised that I was doing something that they were not doing, contemplating. In other words I was thinking, I was a thinker. But most people are not thinkers, instead they are doers. They get up and go to work, they see sporting fixtures, they study, they feed babies. They don't think about why they do what they do they simply do it. I'm very glad people feed babies instead of thinking about it!

It's true that many things need to be done and the doers are a very important part of society, without them society would fail. But it must be pointed out that even drunks are doers, not everything that is done needs to be done. Just as not ever thought needs to thought.

Many doers would point out that they think, but what they do is wonder. They ask questions that they don't really seek answers for. But thinking, real thinking is painful, the answers change the colour of your world, it often makes you feel like you are drowning under the weight of the answer. Doers rarely let that happen to them, their smarter than that. Thinkers are often smart enough to think of a problem, but they are not always smart enough to come up with a solution. Thinkers often get burnt out and become doers.

Doers let other people do their thinking for them, we all let other people think for us, because thinking is hard. And the reality is that we cannot afford the luxury of thinking for ourselves on ever issue all the time. The real world demands attention. So we must let others bear the load. In the past Churches, Trade Unions, local dignitaries did our thinking for us and if it was good enough for them then it was good enough for us. Today many people let the media do their thinking for them and because they are not thinkers they do not see the problem.

Thinkers can lead themselves into mental quagmires, something that doers rarely do. For them the world is binary, divided into two parts, the part they live and experience and the world that is presented to them. That means that they can reject either their own experiences, which many do, or that they can reject the way the world is presented to them. And once that opinion is formed it is really hard to budge, but not impossible.

That is why Liberalism will not allow certain people or ideas to gain any publicity. People might start letting the wrong thinkers do their thinking for them. Which is why we need to keep pushing!

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Wednesday, 26 September 2018

Morrison and Immigration

Scott Morrison is now Prime Minister of Australia and immigration is, like everywhere in the Western world, a big issue. Mr. Morrison was even Immigration Minister for a time, so unlike most people who get to the top he has a good idea of the reality out there. The question is how does this affect him as Prime Minister?

On the 17th September 2018, a week ago, Mr. Morrison announced a Royal Commission into aged care in Australia, interestingly part of it involves immigration. In the words of Mr. Morrison "a sociocultural demographic bubble coming through on the make up of the population" "This is the first time when you are seeing more Australians from different ethnic backgrounds coming into the aged care sector than you've ever seen before" "When you are suffering from dementia, often you revert back to your childhood." "And you've spoken English your entire working life in Australia and all of a sudden you've gone back to speaking Greek, or Italian, or Arabic, or Chinese, whether it's Mandarin or Cantonese, whichever." "And so the system has to deal with that too."

Looks like all that talk about how the immigrants were going to help our aging population may not be quite true!

In fact they now need help as they age.....and that they are now a burden on us and our aged care facilities. Well everyone on this side of the aisle always knew this, but it is good that an Australian Prime Minister also knows it.

Maybe he will be good for cutting immigration!

Not so fast!

You see there was a second article released the same day, Prime Minister Scott Morrison exposes Australias big Immigration Myth. So whats the myth? Best to hear it from Mr. Morrison's lips.

'In an exclusive interview with news.com.au, Mr. Morrison struck a very different tone. He identified a pervasive myth at the heart of the immigration debate - that permanent migrants from overseas are the biggest strain on Australia's infrastructure. He said temporary migration and natural population growth, caused by the people who already live here having children, were far more significant factors. "I've never bought this idea that the permanent immigration intake is the thing fueling population growth. Because it's not borne out by the actual maths." Mr. Morrison said. When it comes to population growth at the moment, there are 10 extra people have got on the bus. Just over four of them are temporary migrants. Just under four of them were born here, a natural increase. And only two of them are permanent migrants."

So lets get this straight, 10 new people get on a bus, 4 were born in Australia, 4 are temporary migrants (who may or may not leave) and 2 are permanent immigrants. So we know straight away that 60% of the population increase is from immigration. Ohhh thats right he said permanent immigration, but when I get on the bus what I experience in real life is 6 migrants, not 4. Also migrants, whether they are here for a short time or a long time, use the infrastructure. They also take up real space on that bus, they have an effect and for Mr. Morrison to pretend they don't is not good news.

Also how many of those born in Australia are really Australians? How many are the children of immigrants? An additional part of the population shell game they try to play with us.

The interview continues:

'Meanwhile, smaller cities such as Adelaide were simply "crying out" for more immigration not less. "The idea of average population growth is about as helpful as average rainfall. It has the same practical meaning," he said. "You can have high levels of population growth that are actually being quite unhelpful in terms of whats happening in the economy, or social cohesion. You can have high levels of it, which if it's all pretty much skills based and everybody's in a job and it's focused on regional areas, it can be quite suitably absorbed." '

Adelaide is crying out for more immigration, lets be quite frank absolutely no where is crying out for more immigration, and that includes regional areas. Mr. Morrison is a Right Liberal and there fore he thinks that economics is the be all and end all of existence. He thinks that it is possible to have an ideal economy, as long as everyone plays their part correctly. It is pure nonsense. He thinks that if we bring in enough skilled migrants then we I don't know what. But apparently the 800,000 unemployed in Australia cannot be trained, or maybe it's the 800,000 over educated graduates that cannot be trained. Skilled migration is a lie that we have been told too many times.

If Mr. Morrison wants to win the next election he needs to made a big cut to immigration. So far all I see is more of the same.

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Friday, 21 September 2018

Unemployment in Australia, 2018

Earlier this month a report was released by ACOSS (Australian Council of Social Service) and Jobs Australia, both are NGO's, this report is called Faces of Unemployment. It is an interesting and unusual look at unemployment in Australia, although not without it's flaws.

The reports summary
"This new report looks behind the headline unemployment statistica to reveal who is affected, why it's no easy matter for most unemployed people to get a job, and the disturbing trend in long term unemployment. We also look at the chances people on unemployment payments have of getting a job, and the help they receive from jobactive employment services."

In July 2018 there were 827,794 people on unemployment benefits, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that there were 713,000 unemployed people in Australia that month. Thats a discrepancy of more than 100,000 people. To put these numbers in perspective there are 25,000,000 people living in Australia. That means that 3% of Australia's population is unemployed, or to put it another way 1 out of every 30 people.

Even these figures have to be taken with a grain of salt as over 300,000 people who receive unemployment benefits are not required to look for work as they work part time or are studying. At the same time we do not know how many people are not eligible due to their family or partner receiving too much income for them to qualify, even though they are unemployed.

Of the unemployed that receive benefits overall:

17% were aged under 25

38% were aged 25-44

43% were aged 45 or over

The number of young unemployed would be higher if they were not forced to go to university, the real reason for the high retention rates in education. But once they leave then the number goes up and it keeps going up. When unemployment first became an issue in the 1970's, the vast majority of the unemployed were young and the stereotype of the young carefree loafer was born. As the reality of unemployment has changed the stereotype remains.

For the long term unemployed, categorized as 12 months of unemployment or longer:

10% were aged under 25

38% were aged 25-44

49% were aged 45 or over

Of those aged over 55, the long term unemployment figure is 25%!

80% of all unemployed are single, no matter what their age.

62% of unemployed remain out of work after 12 months, after 24 months that figure remained 44% and an amazing 15% remain unemployed for more than 60 months, thats 5 years!

30% of all employment in Australia is part time or casual. Not everyone who works part time or in a casual position wants that to change, but more than 1,100,000 people do, they want full time employment, some argue that anyone who wants a full time job and does not have one should be counted as unemployed.

Section 1.5 asks and answers why they believe long term unemployment has become and remains an issue.

1. People have been put on unemployment benefits who were once on other types of benefits.

2. No investment in helping people get jobs.

3. The labour market has changed with fewer low skilled jobs than in the past.

Later in Section 3.6 they have an interesting chart that talks about whether different employment programs are successful:

-0.2% Public Sector Wage Subsidies (also known as pretend government jobs)

3.8% Compulsory, assisted job search (most unemployed do this)

9.7% Vocational Training (either on the job or at a training centre)

21.2% Wage subsidies in private sector (although this type of subsidy can be massively exploited)

The report is quite hard on temporary migration, meaning students or working holiday visa holders. At any one time there are nearly 400,000 people in Australia in these categories. They often do low end jobs which directly compete against the unemployed. They are often exploited and it has been an ongoing scandal over a number of years. And of course such people also compete against Australian workers. It is an eternal truth that if a foreigner has a job then an Australian does not have that job.

At the top of page 15 is this curious passage on immigration:

"On the whole, new migrants contribute positively to growth in living standards and the diversity of the Australian community, and have little impact (positive or negative) on employment and wages among the resident population."

Little impact? But aren't we always told that they have a positive impact? The statement links to a Productivity Commission report, which is a government agency, interestingly even they couldn't find too much positive to say on immigration. For a report that is directed at government and the media this is not a ringing endorsement. Later on in the paragraph the report states that they believe that temporary migrants do depress wages and working conditions.

We often wonder how many people there are in Australia who aren't White, it seems that it is 21% of Australias population, that 5,250,000. When I was born in 1970 it was around 2%.

The report is only 26 pages long and it told me things I didn't know and am glad that I do now know. I do however have two major issues with the report, firstly Immigration is only barely mentioned, maybe I want too much but I would have liked much more on this issue. Secondly most unemployed people are men, why isn't that mentioned anywhere? Why are we forgotten? 

Unemployment is an issue that has been around for 40 years and most people cannot even remember when politicians talked about restoring full employment let alone when it actually existed. It has a high cost, 80% of the unemployed are single, 50% are middle aged and older, 8% of the Australian Federal budget is spent on paying for unemployment.

The Reserve Bank of Australia regards "full employment" to be 95% of people who want work being employed, in other words 5% unemployment still counts as full employment. Currently Australia's unemployment rate is 5.4%, so as far as the economic planners are concerned their doing a marvelous job. I wish they were.

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